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You would have got this wrong OtB

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 23 November 2011, at 4:09 a.m.

In Response To: You would have got this wrong OtB (Stick)

This is an old position that Stick posted. I was curious to see what XG 2.01 would say about it. It still says that not doubling is a blunder, but not by as much as XG1 thought. My guess is that XG2 is still missing subsequent doubles and hence is underestimating the ND equity. Note that the D/T equity is about the same for both rollouts.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
11 point match
pip: 153
score: 3

is Player 1
XGID=------CbBCCB----bbccBa-b--:0:0:-1:00:3:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.28% (G:8.00% B:0.14%) 66.43% (G:7.80% B:0.13%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.72% (G:5.52% B:0.24%) 33.57% (G:5.55% B:0.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.345 +0.697
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.448 (-0.070)±0.008 (+0.440..+0.456)
Double/Take:+0.518±0.009 (+0.508..+0.527)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.482)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

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