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BGonline.org Forums
Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate
Posted By: Christian Munk-Christensen
Date: Friday, 25 November 2011, at 3:55 p.m.
I have been fortunate enough to play on the same team as the backgammon genious Mikael Jensen (who is famous and well respected in Dk but not so well known outside of Dk as he has played very few international events).
Mikael has taught me a lot and we have played a ton of matches, many of which have been rated.
Our team used to play in the elite division and there we would play just about as tough opposition as you can find anywhere. Especially if you always get to play the best players from the other teams.
Throughout the years Mikael has consistently won a mindbogglingly high rate of his matches, despite the stiff opposition. (one year he ran particularly well and scored 19-3). I reckon Mikaels winrate was around 65-70% in the elites.
As for me, I only won around 50% which is not too bad considering the players I usually drew.
What has puzzled me is the fact that when I play Mikael I have a significant positive record, and when we record matches our PRs are quite close. Actually I'd go as far as to say that we're even on the PR.
Still Mikael used to win a lot more matches than I did.
So I have wondered if there are different ways of achieving a certain PR but these different ways are not close in how effectively they win the matches.
I like to just play what I consider to be the correct play whereas others will adjust a lot.
Example: Imagine player A being a solid player who can play a 4,5. Player B is world class and makes very few errors. During their match player B feels like much the stronger player and adjusts his cube actions accordingly. Both players end up playing with a PR of 4,5 but player B "ruined" his PR because of 2 intentional drops and a few deliberately missed recubes in some holding game type of positions. Which of these 2 players would have the best chance of winning the match?
How do people think about the idea: is it possible to play at similar PRs in different ways and have some of these ways be a lot more effective than others in terms of winning chances?
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