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Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 25 November 2011, at 8:57 p.m.

In Response To: Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate (Christian Munk-Christensen)

While Timothy linked you to a more accurate way of comparing players the fault probably lies in you aren't even in the same country as statistical significance. What do you have of Mikael's, a couple hundred matches tops? Near meaningless esp. against equal like opp's. This brings me back to always ranting on about nobody understanding what the long term is in backgammon. It isn't 1 year, it isn't 5 years, and for most US ABT players it isn't even a lifetime.

I also hate whenever someone 'reckons' the person won 65-70% of their matches. Either have the data or don't have it, this type of eye-balling is not the way to go. And I highly doubt you have anywhere near a meaningful amount of heads up matches against him either.

Stick

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