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Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Friday, 25 November 2011, at 9:54 p.m.

In Response To: Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate (Stick)

>> I also hate whenever someone 'reckons' the person won 65-70% of their matches. Either have the data or don't have it, this type of eye-balling is not the way to go

Don't underestimate CMC this much :-)

Of course he has the data, he just didn't bother to make the exact calculation. Anything significantly above 50% would underline his point.

BTW: You can find the data here: http://www.dbgf.dk/rating/spillerprofil.php?dbgfnr=18782

You'll see that Michael has won 67,2% of his 189 17-point team league matches!

And he's also won 67% of his 218 17+ point rated matches.

Now, what calculation did CMC not perform then? Not all of Michael's 189 team league matches has been played in the elite division. If you want to get the exact figure, you have to go through them manually. However, the vast majority of his matches was played on this level, so going "60-65%" is definitely not much off, maybe a tad conservative.

----------------

However, I agree with you, that you need A LOT of matches, before small error-rate differences will show with statistical certainty in the win-rate. :-)

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