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Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate

Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer
Date: Friday, 25 November 2011, at 10:24 p.m.

In Response To: Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate (Timothy Chow)

>> The match length doesn't matter. I said, suppose that A and B are equally strong. If they're equally strong, then they're equally likely to win any particular match, no matter how long the match is.

Match length matters.

It matters for the expected win-rate (the longer the matches, the higher % the better player will win), but it also matters for different player types. Some players fair well in long matches, while others thrive at 5 pointers and down. In particular, the DMP discipline requires a special skill set to master. If you pit a DMP whiz vs. a DMP ignorant, the win-rates will not be the same for 3-pointers and 17-pointers, even though the players ER-wise on average are equally strong, since the DMP situation will account for much more of the total in the 3-point series!

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