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BGonline.org Forums
Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate
Posted By: Henrik Bukkjaer In Response To: Random thoughts on adjustment of play, PR level and expected win rate (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Saturday, 26 November 2011, at 1:47 a.m.
You're guessing as to how I have played when. Yes, and I wrote "I guess" to emphasize this. ...We have never played Correct. ... and you have never seen me play. Not correct, but that has no influence on our posts nor the subject. Only you yourself has seen enough of your play to make technical analysis for any error patterns that could affect PR and win-rate differently.
I might have been far off, but I was trying to help you find possible reasons that could explain your observations. My guesses on the difference between you and Michael not being constant over time, were based on the fact that when you played your very first match as a new DBgF member (you joined in 2003), Michael was already well established in the top-10!
Now, even IF we assume you are right, that you were able to match ER with top-10 players from day one of your DBgF live career, I still have a point: Michael was relatively stronger vs. the prebot field. So, if you split his data in two, at the 2005 season, you'll notice that he scores 70% before and 62% after. So, the period where you compare yourself to him, you should not compared vs. the 67,2%, but rather the 62% win-rate. Thus a few percent are explained!
I take your reply as though you agree that some styles may win more than other styles, even if both styles lead to the same PR.
Oh yes, indeed! And in particular when you're considering real life play (ie. not playing a reference bot, but rather flesh and blood that will make different errors)...
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