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XGR++ errors in holding games

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Sunday, 27 November 2011, at 11:45 a.m.

In Response To: Are full rollouts obsolete? (Chuck Bower)

Here are two XGR++ errors in 5pt holding game I discovered yesterday:






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145
Unlimited Game
pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBcD-C---bD---bacbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76,92% (G:4,04% B:0,04%) 76,96% (G:4,14% B:0,04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23,08% (G:1,57% B:0,03%) 23,04% (G:1,58% B:0,02%)
Cubeless Equities +0,563 +1,130
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,901 (-0,066)
Double/Take:+0,967
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,033)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 145
Unlimited Game
pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBcD-C---bD---bacbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77,10% (G:3,73% B:0,05%) 77,20% (G:3,67% B:0,06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22,90% (G:1,86% B:0,05%) 22,80% (G:1,90% B:0,05%)
Cubeless Equities +0,561 +1,124
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,941 (-0,059)±0,007 (+0,935..+0,948)
Double/Take:+1,011 (+0,011)±0,007 (+1,004..+1,018)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38615740
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:99,8%
Duration: 14 minutes 50 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
pip: 103
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbCCC---bB---b-cbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77,65% (G:2,06% B:0,03%) 77,71% (G:2,11% B:0,03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22,35% (G:1,03% B:0,02%) 22,29% (G:0,99% B:0,02%)
Cubeless Equities +0,563 +1,131
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,898 (-0,084)
Double/Take:+0,982
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,018)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
pip: 103
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BBbCCC---bB---b-cbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77,78% (G:1,90% B:0,03%) 77,89% (G:1,81% B:0,03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22,22% (G:1,11% B:0,03%) 22,11% (G:1,07% B:0,03%)
Cubeless Equities +0,563 +1,130
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,929 (-0,071)±0,006 (+0,923..+0,935)
Double/Take:+1,016 (+0,016)±0,006 (+1,010..+1,023)
Double/Pass:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38615740
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 8 minutes 35 seconds

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