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how to play 51

Posted By: Martin Sterel
Date: Thursday, 8 December 2011, at 8:38 a.m.

In Response To: how to play 51 (Timothy Chow)

This position is living proof counting shots OTB has to be done if possible.

As I lack the experience( I play just 2,5 years serious and 3,5 total) to do it in my head real fast and still need to count on my fingers to be sure. Now I played on intuition which was wrong.

I played blitz gammon and you have almost no time to count shots or consider all plays. But it was 10 cents and did not care too much. Anyone who played it will know how soon you hear the timer ticking. And maybe I am just excusing my self now for a bad play as all other moves beside 1 were fine. Though counting shots would have really helped here as that seems to be the key to the problem.

But regardless the amount of time it is a hard situation, and there are actually 4 plays to consider as I missed yours to.Another reason not to play blitz gammon.

So now we have 4 plays ranging from an ugly 14/8 with no shots, to contact plays.

1. 14/8 : no return shots

2. 14/9 8/7 *: 65, 63,62,61,52,43,32,22,21 = 17/36

3. 8/7* 7/2 : 62,52,51,42,32,31,22,21,11= 16/36

4. 8/7* 6/1* : : 11,12,13,14,15,16,22 = 12/36

If you engage a contact play often hitting both takes away more rolls for returns. Also gammons play a part definitely ATS. But here it also just leaves the least returns.

However I feared the 5 point board. For a better understanding I added 2 variations named “small big changes “ later. I thought that would be part of the solution. It is to some degree, but the amount of returns makes hitting both superior from all contact plays and not the structure of the board. Off course the structure of the 5 point board matters if we get hit, but we have some timing left if we enter from the bar at a more solid structure in a variation with a 4 or 5 prime for white.We do not collapse right away leaving a lot of shots if we enter than as we have some rolls to play from 11,10,9,8.we would not like it, but that is a different story.

Even at DMP hitting both is right and only now a non contact play comes a bit closer.From the contact plays 14/9 8/7* is perhaps also okay as now white will have to give up his 5 point to hit at some rolls.

I also want to address the variations as it was interesting to see what happens than. At a score where gammons matter a 5 point board as a 5 prime makes hitting both also right. Only at DMP the safe ugly is right. And even than it is very close On 5 point board as a 4 prime hitting both is right if gammons matter and if they don’t. I could not make “a small big variation” with a 6 prime as it changes too much.

Martin





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
3 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BbCaCBBB--A---abb-bbb-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:3:10
Blue to play 51

1.XG Roller++8/7* 6/1* eq: +0,370
Player:
Opponent:		71,04% (G:12,21% B:0,31%)
28,96% (G:8,81% B:0,16%)
2.XG Roller++14/9 8/7* eq: +0,337 (-0,033)
Player:
Opponent:		69,89% (G:10,91% B:0,38%)
30,11% (G:6,34% B:0,04%)
3.XG Roller++8/7* 7/2eq: +0,300 (-0,069)
Player:
Opponent:		68,56% (G:10,94% B:0,34%)
31,44% (G:7,56% B:0,07%)
4.XG Roller++14/8eq: +0,239 (-0,130)
Player:
Opponent:		67,09% (G:6,94% B:0,19%)
32,91% (G:4,19% B:0,03%)
5.2-ply14/13 6/1* eq: +0,093 (-0,276)
Player:
Opponent:		61,59% (G:9,38% B:0,24%)
38,41% (G:13,20% B:0,12%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
2 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BbCaCBBB--A---abb-bbb-:1:-1:1:51:0:0:0:2:10
Blue to play 51

1.XG Roller++8/7* 6/1* eq: +0,420
Player:
Opponent:		70,99% (G:12,53% B:0,33%)
29,01% (G:8,73% B:0,15%)
2.XG Roller++14/9 8/7* eq: +0,398 (-0,022)
Player:
Opponent:		69,90% (G:11,36% B:0,41%)
30,10% (G:6,31% B:0,04%)
3.XG Roller++8/7* 7/2eq: +0,369 (-0,051)
Player:
Opponent:		68,46% (G:11,64% B:0,38%)
31,54% (G:7,53% B:0,08%)
4.XG Roller++14/8eq: +0,340 (-0,080)
Player:
Opponent:		67,00% (G:7,85% B:0,23%)
33,00% (G:4,50% B:0,04%)
5.2-ply14/13 6/1* eq: +0,232 (-0,188)
Player:
Opponent:		61,59% (G:9,27% B:0,24%)
38,41% (G:13,05% B:0,11%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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