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BGonline.org Forums
OT: 4th and 1 from the 1
Posted By: Steve Mellen In Response To: OT: 4th and 1 from the 1 (Stick)
Date: Friday, 9 December 2011, at 2:35 p.m.
Even a 50% chance would be enough to make it clearly correct to go for it. Since a 2-point conversion is run from the 2-yard line and the chance of success is 50% or just a tiny bit less, I infer that the chances are definitely higher than 50% from the 1-yard line. I wouldn't be surprised if Chuck's numbers demonstrate that 4th-and-short is one of the most persistent errors in football.
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