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cubeaction R.O ++

Posted By: Martin Sterel
Date: Friday, 9 December 2011, at 4:39 p.m.

In Response To: cubeaction (pontiac)

By accident I was asked yesterday if I ever played a certain player whose name I won’t mention as he(who also plays as a she online ) is not worth mentioning. I opened a file and came across this position that is however worth mentioning.

At the time I got the analysis back from XG I was a bit surprised at first I missed a cube as you fan 25 times and also feared to be on the bar with 2 checkers and even if it was a cube, I thought it to be an easy take. I did not understand completely even though I did see rolling a 1 would be good but any other roll would not and asked Phil ( Simborg) for help..

But as he pointed out it indeed fits criteria of market losers. Those are not hard to miss as there are 11, yet I was fearing the sequence fanning and a closeout . However every 1 you roll is a market loser and even if you don’t roll a 1 get missed on 15 white is getting in trouble. As also some of the bad rolls won’t hurt too much up untill a temporarily get closed out you can survive.You might enter the next roll and if you do enter right away there are quit some gammons to win. Also white has to escape a 5 prime that takes about a 6 roll average. In the actual game I rolled a 15 right away cubed and lost my market as now it is Dbl/pass. Especially 11 and 13 are market losers but basically every 1 you roll is good. Though playing it out afterwards I never entered and got recubed every time.

However the correct action is dbl/take. I thought I had it rolled out, but I have not .however XGR++ clearly thinks it is DBL and easy take.

Martin




White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 110
5 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-CBCCB---a--Aa--bbbbbaA:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64,62% (G:20,81% B:1,76%) 64,56% (G:21,13% B:1,83%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35,38% (G:13,94% B:0,25%) 35,44% (G:14,13% B:0,25%)
Cubeless Equities +0,333 +0,705
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,476 (-0,112)
Double/Take:+0,588
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,412)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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