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OT: 4th and 1 from the 1

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 9 December 2011, at 9:13 p.m.

In Response To: OT: 4th and 1 from the 1 (Gregg Cattanach)

ROFL at most NFL coaches. Lets say that they are just 50% to make the TD and are 100% to make the short kick. Right there it is 1/2 pt better to go for it.

But what is the difference in expected points scored as the game goes on between giving the opp team the ball on the 1 yard line vs the 20 (and often they run the K/O out past that even today)? I suspect it has to be at least 1 pt so assuming you miss the TD half the time you come out a pt better bcuz the team is pinned back so badly.

Totally it all up, if you go for the TD, you come out 1 pt better on average based on my overly conservative assumptions.

I suspect the real number is more like 1.25 or even as much as 1.50 pts.

.. neilkaz ..

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