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OLM We 12/07/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 9 December 2011, at 9:41 p.m.

In Response To: OLM We 12/07/11 (Jason Lee)

Assuming opp fails to bear off in its next two shakes, if we cover the 2-point instead of clearing the 5-point we gain on 2-x followed by {66,55} and 2-y followed by {66,55,44} where x is in the set {1,3,4} and y the remaining. That's (6/36)*(2/36) + (5/36)*(3/36) = 27/1296.

If we clear the 5-point we gain on 44 (1/36) as long as we then don't roll 2-1. The latter minute roll costs us when we roll 66 and 55 as well. So this play is better (1/36)*(34/36) - (2/36)*(2/36) = 30/1296.

Looks like clearing the 5-point is better by a smidge, particularly tiny difference since it all depends upon opp failing to get off in 2 rolls.

5/0, 5/3

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