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Daily Quiz 12/8: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 12 December 2011, at 3:33 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 12/8 (Daily Quiz)

After seeing the results below, I was reminded of 52S-64P-43, where T seems to come out on top, though by a much narrower margin than it does here.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
5 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa---E-D---dE---c-db---A-:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 52

1.XG Roller+13/6eq: -0.195
Player:
Opponent:
46.56% (G:9.96% B:0.37%)
53.44% (G:15.73% B:0.44%)
2.XG Roller+24/22 13/8eq: -0.232 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:
46.32% (G:10.70% B:0.51%)
53.68% (G:18.48% B:0.56%)
3.XG Roller+13/11 13/8eq: -0.250 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
44.93% (G:9.87% B:0.39%)
55.07% (G:16.40% B:0.54%)
4.XG Roller+13/11 6/1* eq: -0.311 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:
43.83% (G:10.10% B:0.37%)
56.17% (G:17.75% B:0.71%)
5.XG Roller+24/22 6/1* eq: -0.326 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:
44.10% (G:9.28% B:0.36%)
55.90% (G:18.73% B:0.60%)
6.XG Roller+8/1* eq: -0.329 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent:
43.36% (G:9.61% B:0.35%)
56.64% (G:17.94% B:0.65%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


Even on my clunker of a machine, a full rollout took no time at all so I went ahead and did it.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 30
5 point match
pip: 28
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-A-ABBA------------a-dba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 79.76% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.24% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.75% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.25% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.595
Double:+1.135
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.816 (-0.184)
Double/Take:+1.038 (+0.038)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.814...+0.818)
Confidence Double: ± 0.003 (+1.036...+1.041)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 27.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross


Hitting turns out to be not so bad after all. This would be a good DQR candidate. It would be nice to have another example or two of this theme.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 157
1 point match
pip: 180
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--a--aE-BA--dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller+Bar/22 13/9eq: -0.106
Player:
Opponent:
44.72% (G:11.05% B:0.42%)
55.28% (G:16.39% B:1.00%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/22 9/5* eq: -0.107 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
44.63% (G:11.53% B:0.45%)
55.37% (G:17.57% B:1.31%)
3.XG Roller+Bar/21 24/21eq: -0.108 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:
44.61% (G:10.78% B:0.39%)
55.39% (G:15.54% B:0.76%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 157
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 180
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--a--aE-BA--dD---d-e----BA:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller+Bar/21 24/21eq: -0.231
Player:
Opponent:
44.42% (G:10.41% B:0.37%)
55.58% (G:15.16% B:0.69%)
2.XG Roller+Bar/22 9/5* eq: -0.241 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
44.83% (G:11.52% B:0.44%)
55.17% (G:17.49% B:1.28%)
3.XG Roller+Bar/22 13/9eq: -0.242 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
44.49% (G:10.93% B:0.40%)
55.51% (G:15.99% B:0.95%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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