First off I missed both, but having seen the bottom before I understood the upper better and faster. And maybe the third time I see it right away OTB and if not the 4th or 5th. Trial by error.
Differences off course but both are 4 cubes not 2 cubes. In both we diminish opponent’s POG and raise our own. In the bottom example even to 0. We lose a lot of gammons anyway.
The bottom is easy to pinpoint with the shots that hit 15/36 and that is 41%. Since he escapes some time39 to 40% seems better and that is exactly our win chances If we miss we are almost dead. Not sure my self but less than 10%.as than maybe dancing might be better yet regardless either from the bar or from 21 we hardly get a shot. We will win 0 gammons but lose a lot . So at 4 at we care not/ less losing gammon and it seems it is going that direction anyway at 2 losing the match. I missed it but REDOUBLE /(EASY) TAKE
The upper is harder to pinpoint. Yet here as well we lose a lot of gammons and we even win some ( unlike the bottom here 1 checker beared off would not mean redbl to 4). Yet our gammon wins at 4 are much more worth off course as his. The sequences harder to predict, but not our POG at 4 and 2. In fact with just 2 on bar and that blot lets say at 18( not a cover number it is even a big redbl) so here as well Redbl/ Take. I include also with the cube in the middle.
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| XGID=-a-BABBBC----------c-cabeC:1:1:1:00:1:5:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 51,50% (G:12,01% B:0,50%) | 51,81% (G:12,87% B:0,56%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 48,50% (G:37,99% B:1,57%) | 48,19% (G:38,45% B:2,76%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,202 | +0,255 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,208 (-0,036) | ±0,013 (+0,196..+0,221) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,244 | ±0,017 (+0,227..+0,261) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,756) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 57701643 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99,9% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 23 minutes 41 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=-a-BABBBC---------Ac-cabeB:1:1:1:00:1:5:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 58,57% (G:13,98% B:0,62%) | 59,00% (G:14,89% B:0,63%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 41,43% (G:30,95% B:0,77%) | 41,00% (G:31,23% B:1,28%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,036 | +0,661 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,459 (-0,194) | ±0,019 (+0,440..+0,477) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,653 | ±0,024 (+0,629..+0,677) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,347) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 684 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 18374857 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 13 minutes 49 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=--BBBCB-A-----------aeBbfA:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 38,90% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 39,44% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 61,10% (G:29,84% B:1,68%) | 60,56% (G:40,20% B:0,69%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,498 | -0,192 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | -0,320 (-0,128) | ±0,003 (-0,323..-0,317) |
| Redouble/Take: | -0,192 | ±0,006 (-0,198..-0,186) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,192) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 684 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140606 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 8 minutes 02 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=-a-BABBBC----------c-cabeC:0:0:1:00:1:5:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 46,94% (G:10,59% B:0,38%) | 49,64% (G:10,70% B:0,46%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 53,06% (G:42,54% B:0,76%) | 50,36% (G:38,66% B:0,98%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,444 | -0,595 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0,238 | |
| Double/Take: | -0,481 (-0,244) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,238) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14,1% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
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| XGID=--BBBCB-A-----------aeBbfA:0:0:1:00:0:2:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 39,58% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 39,62% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 60,42% (G:30,17% B:0,13%) | 60,38% (G:30,68% B:0,17%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0,556 | -1,134 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0,455 | |
| Double/Take: | -1,128 (-0,673) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1,000 (+1,455) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24,0% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross