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some clarifications

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 12:44 a.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Chuck Bower)

Dummy's hand:

(spades) Axx

(hearts) Jxx

(diamonds) Jxx

(clubs) AKQJ

Note that if defense hadn't attacked diamonds then declarer wins 7 spades plus 4 clubs = 11 tricks (the 10 he needs to fulfill his contract plus a bonus).

Regarding "justification", what I meant was that Alder was justifying declarer playing LH opponent for holding the ace because RH opponent has already shown an ace and it's more likely that the aces are split between the two opponents than in the same hand.

Concerning restricted choice, I don't think that applies here. The key cards are the diamond A and Q, which aren't touching and thus not equivalent. (Also neither one has shown up yet, which is part of the requirement of restricted choice, I'm pretty sure.)

BTW, I don't think anyone has arrived at the point I was trying to make (which could simply mean my point is bogus). I'll wait for a bit more discussion/opinions before stating my case. (And maybe someone in the meantime will do it for me.) I probably have already given a hint, but if so maybe it is a very subtle one (assuming I'm on the mark).

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