Trailer's gammonless takepoint ATS is around 20%. G's and Bg values are huge for my side here - around 1.6/7.0 vs. the normal .5/1.0. The deucepoint game by itself isn't enough to take but there is some vig to consider. Black could roll 55 and then I'd have real good winning chances. Or he might leave two blots with 41,32, or 21. If I hit both and Black rolled poorly, I could force him to crack his prime. If he leaves one blot, I'd have some slight chances of containing his lone back checker. This extra vig just isn't quite enough to give me a take though. Give my side another 1.5% gammons, and the t/p decision would be marginal.
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| XGID=--BACBC-b----B---bbbcbbB--:0:0:-1:00:1:11:0:13:10 | ||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||
is Player 1 | Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 83.88% (G:12.45% B:0.86%) | 84.41% (G:14.57% B:1.31%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 16.12% (G:1.23% B:0.04%) | 15.59% (G:1.20% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.834 | +1.655 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.965 (-0.035) | ±0.006 (+0.959..+0.970) |
| Double/Take: | +1.129 (+0.129) | ±0.016 (+1.113..+1.145) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 11 minutes 37 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2