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bridge probability question (OT) review and another question

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 16 December 2011, at 5:27 p.m.

In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Chuck Bower)

Lots of good answers with variety. That's what I like to see. Apparently I made this more confusing than need be, but certainly some saw what I was getting at.

First off, as many eventually noticed, the fact that LH had the first of two missing aces is (probabilistically speaking) irrelevant. At the time of decision (third trick of this hand) it is KNOWN where one ace is/was. So it's NOT the same as asking "if two aces are distributed randomly among two hands of 13 cards each, what are the chances they are both in the same hand?"

So before RH leads to trick 3, the remaining missing ace (from declarer's PoV) is equally likely to be in either hand. But after he leads there are now 21 missing cards (not 22) and LH has more of them. So is it now more likely that LH has the ace (by a ratio of 11::10)?

Hopefully not everyone is already bored with this thread. :) If there are no responses by this evening I'll just finish up and hope someone will read that final post.

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