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BGonline.org Forums
bridge probability question (OT) - final summary
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: bridge probability question (OT) (Chuck Bower)
Date: Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:00 p.m.
UBK nailed the 2nd question.
BTW, I usually post things I'm unsure about and this thread was no exception. I had a feeling/intuition what was right but I was unsure so posting here and getting good responses crystallized my thinking.
Regarding 'knowledge' of opponents, that can help with this hand. First let's consider what weak opponents would do:
If RH is weak he is unlikely to underlead the ace at trick three. So play his opp for the ace (and play low from hand so that dummy's jack forces the ace).
If RH is strong then he will lead low from either A or Q. Now you need to draw from other clues. Rodney made an inference from the opening lead (which actually was Alder's second 'clue' after his falacious split aces contention). Reread Rodney's post if you don't remember his argument.
Lastly, Dorn pointed out that at certain forms of duplicate bridge scoring (specifically matchpoint scoring), RH opp might do best by simply laying down his ace. Note he doesn't know for sure that partner even has a high honor. Without going into the details, in total points (e.g. "rubber bridge") you have risk-reward which strongly biases towards defeating the opponents' contract at all costs, even if that means allowing opponent to make extra tricks ("overtricks") in the process. In matchpoint scoring, allowing an overtrick can cost more than beating the contract can gain. But bridge columns in newspapers are total point scoring so in this case RH should underlead the Ace if he doesn't hold the Queen.
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