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OLM Fr 12/16/11

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 17 December 2011, at 4:18 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Fr 12/16/11 (Jason Lee)

Behind in the race, behind in development, and opp threatens to make his best defensive point (which is our best remaining-to-be-made offensive point). 6/5* follows from those issues.

I now see three candidates for completing our play. 11/6 takes away a valuable coverer/buider/hitter. That's out. Counting (hopefully correctly :) nearside return hits for opp, I see 20 of those after our double hit and 21 after the single hit. Outside distribution is better after 6/1* but inside distribution (only three remain on the 6-point and the lamey on the acepoint) favors 13/8. Looks close. But note that the double hit hinders opp more this roll (e.g. needing to enter both checkers, making it a bit harder to anchor and also harder to attack in his homeboard). And many of the hits sacrifice the checker on the acepoint (not a huge sacrifice) to give us better chances of making our 5-point. Those considerations tip me towards:

6/5*, 6/1*

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