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OLM We 01/04/12

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 5 January 2012, at 3:35 p.m.

In Response To: OLM We 01/04/12 (Jason Lee)

I wonder if anyone is going to speculate that we're too-good now? Both sides have four point homeboards. Both sides have an advanced anchor. Both sides have five checkers to bring around.

We hold the race lead, outfield control, and both the better anchor and the better homeboard (qualitatively). No doubt we have a nice lead in the game. If someone is going to stumble with a bad roll it looks like it will be White.

But then there's (still) the score and cube value. Last vote I thought opp was close to the drop/take line. It looks to me as though our gammon win fraction have gone down but probably not our gammon loss fraction. And White's winning chances have gone up. Volatility appears to have gone down. I'd scoop as White. Putting it all together I don't think we're good enough to double.

ND

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