I wondered if I should have posted the original so close to leaving on a trip..., and obviously now I had good reason to wonder.
The actual situation that came up in the match was 2-2. I modded to the 4-2 roll and now I see that Daniel has added the 6-2 roll variant. I'll (try and remember to) post the 2-2 rollout result after people have had a chance to mull over (and hopefully answer) Daniel.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 71 | | 1 point match | pip: 89 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-DBBBB-a--------AAb-e--gA-:0:0:1:24:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 24 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 16/12 | eq: -0.1191 |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.05% (G:2.43% B:0.04%) 55.95% (G:3.95% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ±0.0043 (-0.1234...-0.1147) - [99.8%] Duration: 8 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 17/13 | eq: -0.1285 (-0.0094) |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.57% (G:1.67% B:0.02%) 56.43% (G:4.16% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ±0.0046 (-0.1331...-0.1239) - [0.2%] Duration: 8 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 16/10 | eq: -0.1474 (-0.0283) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.63% (G:1.89% B:0.02%) 57.37% (G:3.66% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ±0.0026 (-0.1500...-0.1448) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 17/11 | eq: -0.1528 (-0.0338) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.36% (G:2.22% B:0.02%) 57.64% (G:3.87% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.1576...-0.1481) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 17/15 16/12 | eq: -0.1856 (-0.0665) |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.72% (G:2.40% B:0.02%) 59.28% (G:4.26% B:0.05%) | |
|
| |
1 379 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36251503 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36251503 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2