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How do you play 4-4 and Why?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 31 January 2012, at 5:25 p.m.

In Response To: How do you play 4-4 and Why? (Michael Depreli)

White	40
Blue	87
Position ID: 3wYAAJprZ5AAAA Match ID: UQnyADAAEAAE

Blue needs to balance: (1) increasing winning chances in his best sequences (2) decreasing losing chances in his worst sequences.

If White fans (25/36) Blue wants to make the 2 point. These are the most likely sequence and Blue's best chance to win. The best play gives 14 ways to make the 2 point next turn.

If White enters but does not escape (7/36), Blue wants to hit. All plays are good here, except slotting the 2 point.

If White enters with 25 or 26 (4/36), Blue needs to hit. Although the least likely sequences, they are White's best chance to win. Blue wants to counter this if he can, but not at the cost of terribly hurting his winning chances in his best and most likely sequences. Blue would rather not have one checker on the bar (but note total returns after White rolls 25 or 26), and two checkers on the bar is awful.

By the way, Blue owns the cube and this is not a money game. Cube action next turn? It shouldn't affect the best play here, but it's all the more reason not to slot the 2 point.

Play	Fan -> Pointmakers	21 22 23 24 -> Hits	25 -> Hits	26 -> Hits	Total hits after 25 or 26
8/4 15/11 13/9 9/5	14	33	21	6	27
8/4 15/11 13/9 11/7	12	36	13	6	19
8/4 15/11 8/4 6/2	27	12 (23 after 21)	8	10	18
8/4 13/9 9/5 6/2	30	17 (22 after 21)	7	none (and 2 on bar)	7
8/4 15/11 11/7 8/4	14	32	5	15	20
8/4 13/9 9/5 8/4	14	32	6	6	12
8/4 15/11 13/9 6/2	32	11 (23 after 21)	18	none (and 2 on bar)	18
8/4 15/11 13/9 8/4	7	30	23	20	43
8/4 13/9 8/4 6/2	24	12 (23 after 21)	8	6	14

Messages In This Thread

• How do you play 4-4 and Why?
  pontiac -- Monday, 30 January 2012, at 4:19 p.m.
  • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
    Michael Depreli -- Monday, 30 January 2012, at 4:53 p.m.
    • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
      pontiac -- Tuesday, 31 January 2012, at 10:45 a.m.
      • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
        Michael Depreli -- Tuesday, 31 January 2012, at 11:36 a.m.
        • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
          Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 31 January 2012, at 5:25 p.m.
          • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
            pontiac -- Wednesday, 1 February 2012, at 7:51 a.m.
            • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
              Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 1 February 2012, at 8:38 a.m.
            • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
              Stick -- Wednesday, 1 February 2012, at 9:06 a.m.
              • How do you play 4-4 and Why?
                pontiac -- Wednesday, 1 February 2012, at 10:28 a.m.