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Rollouts XG and GNU

Posted By: Petter Bengtsson
Date: Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 1:08 p.m.

In Response To: XG and a D/T? (steve)

Four rollouts:

1. XG2 4-ply with XG2 Kazaross MET
2. XG2 4-ply with g11 MET
3. GNU 2-ply with g11 MET
4. GNU 0-ply with g11 MET

All four says Double/Take is the correct cube action.

Steve, what rollout parameters did you use when getting a huge Double/Pass in your GNU rollout?

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 98 7 point match pip: 110 score: 2 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aBBBCB----A-A-b-bAb-dcAa-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75,62% (G:17,59% B:0,45%)	76,05% (G:17,96% B:0,55%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24,38% (G:7,41% B:0,33%)	23,95% (G:7,70% B:0,46%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,606	+1,216
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,785 (-0,195)	±0,006 (+0,779..+0,790)
Double/Take:	+0,980	±0,009 (+0,972..+0,989)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,020)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13579 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 38 minutes 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 98 7 point match pip: 110 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBCB----A-A-b-bAb-dcAa-:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75,61% (G:17,56% B:0,46%)	76,05% (G:17,89% B:0,55%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24,39% (G:7,41% B:0,33%)	23,95% (G:7,67% B:0,42%)
Cubeless Equities	+0,604	+1,205
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0,778 (-0,187)	±0,006 (+0,773..+0,784)
Double/Take:	+0,965	±0,009 (+0,956..+0,974)
Double/Pass:	+1,000 (+0,035)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13579 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100,0%
Take Decision confidence:		100,0%
Duration: 34 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, Petter 2 (match to 7 points)

Move number 2: Petter on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	98
Petter	110
Position ID: uWdmACC23SBBEA Match ID: cAngAAAAEAAE

• Petter doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.591	(Money: +0.603)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.945
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.055
3.	No double	+0.779	-0.166
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.746 0.179 0.006 - 0.254 0.071 0.003 +0.591 +0.779 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.759 0.179 0.006 - 0.241 0.077 0.006 +1.180 +0.945 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.007 0.009
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906837281 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, Petter 2 (match to 7 points)

Move number 2: Petter on roll, cube decision?

gnubg	98
Petter	110
Position ID: uWdmACC23SBBEA Match ID: cAngAAAAEAAE

• Petter doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.591	(Money: +0.602)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.888
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.112
3.	No double	+0.730	-0.158
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.747 0.191 0.006 - 0.253 0.082 0.005 +0.591 +0.730 Standard error 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.009 Player gnubg owns 2-cube 0.750 0.190 0.006 - 0.250 0.087 0.006 +1.144 +0.888 Standard error 0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.010 0.014
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906837281 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Messages In This Thread

• XG and a D/T?
  steve -- Friday, 3 February 2012, at 3:27 a.m.
  • XG and a D/T?
    Stick -- Friday, 3 February 2012, at 3:33 a.m.
    • XG and a D/T?
      steve -- Friday, 3 February 2012, at 3:57 a.m.
    • XG and a D/T?
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 1:14 a.m.
  • Rollouts XG and GNU
    Petter Bengtsson -- Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 1:08 p.m.
    • Maybe wrong score?
      Petter Bengtsson -- Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 1:18 p.m.
    • Rollouts XG and GNU
      Stick -- Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 1:20 p.m.
    • Rollouts XG and GNU
      steve -- Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 5:11 p.m.