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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Fr 02/03/12
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM Fr 02/03/12 (Jason Lee)
Date: Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 3:45 p.m.
Since we get almost no recube vig I'm going to treat this as a 25% takepoint, which might be a bit low (I'll check the MET after I vote).
Our racing chances are close to nil so we must hit to win. On our next turn we will have a direct (11/36) shot 5/36 (5*11/36 hits = 1.5 hits for us) and opp will cover or safety both 4/36 (no hits for us). So we need at least 7.5 hits out of the other 27/36 opp rolls in order to take.
Except when rolling an ace, opp will likely use the smaller die to safety the homeboard checker and the larger to advance the outfield checker. So (excepting opp's 3-3 roll) the most indirect shots next turn is 3/36, with {2,1,0}/36 all being possible. For ease or calculation let's call it 2/36 indirect shots for those 27/36 rolls = 54/1296 or another 1.5/36 hits.
Of the remaining (27 - 1.5)/36 where we're still waiting for more shots. Can we get the needed 6 hits to get up to our 9/36 (25%) total hits? Of those 25.5, 1/4 of the time we will have fanned and still be on the bar. If for simplicity sake we assume we never get a shot in those cases then that leaves ~19/36 of the time left to hit 6 shots. Since we hit a direct only about 1/3 of the time that would mean we need to get a direct EVERY TIME we are in that situation.
To clarify, out of the next 36 rolls, 1.5 we hit immediately, 3.5 we get a direct and miss (losing the game), 4 times opp safeties (and we lose), 1.5 we hit an indirect, 6.5 times we fan (and lose). So assuming all our hits are wins we still need to hit 6 more times in the 19 unaccounted for rolls in 36 and that would require all those 19 to give us a 1/3 chance of hitting, meaning a direct shot, since 1/3 * 19 ~ 6. (And that still assumes we win every game after we hit.) That's too optimistic.
Pass
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