| |
BGonline.org Forums
Still not doubling early at DMP!
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Still not doubling early at DMP! (Taper_Mike)
Date: Monday, 13 February 2012, at 5:37 p.m.
(1) Double/pass. You don't win 32.3% here. You're down two pips, you will waste pips on many rolls. There are 3 shot numbers but you will often face an attack of 3 or 4 builders when you run one checker.
(2) No double. Because, you gain less by doubling in all the sequences that lose your market than you lose by doubling before all the rolls which would give your opponent a double/pass if you had not doubled. And that's against anyone. Against this guy, he may not even double if you fail to roll 3-X or 5-5.
I get about this:
(a) 12.12% of sequences are not market losers (you hit and he hits, or you roll 5-5). Ignore these. Whether or not he doubles after you roll 5-5, or whether or not you double after he hits you, you can't be better off doubling now.
(b) 21.21% of all sequences are market losers (you hit and he fans). 3-1 covers and you win almost all of these, 3-3 hits and breaks the 4 point and you win most of these after a fan, otherwise you have at least 20/36 covers and 3-ply you win (33/36 * 20/36) + (33/36 * 16/36 * 25/26) or so, which all adds up to about 85%.
So 0.85 * 0.2121 = 18% -- that's your ME having doubled in these sequences. 0.68 * 0.2121 = 14.4% -- that's your ME after no double. Your double gains 3.6%.
(c) 66.67% are all the rest -- you'll pass if you haven't doubled. You'll either be way down in the race facing a double shot at one or two blots or way down in the race holding an anchor and only getting a shot on 8/36 numbers. It doesn't look close to a take, so you're probably nowhere near 32%. What are you, 20%? 25%? Let's say 25%. That seems generous -- you'll be down on average 63 pips to 81, maybe 5 adjusted pips short of point of last take in a money game straight race, so you'd need to win more than 10% of games with a hit to get down up to 25% GWC, and I don't think you can do that.
So your ME having doubled in these sequences is 0.66 * 0.25 = 16.5%. Your ME being able to pass is 0.66 * 0.32 = 21.12%. So your double loses about 4.6%.
So don't double. It loses you more than it gains.
With the same numbers, we could say that your ME having doubled would be about 16.5% + 18% + 6% = 40.5% (I give you 50% wins in the nonmarket losing sequences). And your ME not doubling is 21.12% + 14.4% + 6% = 41.5%. So again no double by 1% ME.
Blue could double with less, but not here.
With 32.3% GWC, if he'd never pass a double after no double.
Or, a simpler position: 4 on the ace point vs. 2 on the deuce point:
Blue's GWC and ME if he doubles is 6/36 + (30/36 * 10/36) = 16.66 + 23.14 = 39.8%.
100% GWC on 6 doublets having doubled, 68% after no double. Doubling gains (100-67.7) * 6/36 = 5.38% ME.
27.77% GWC on 30 nondoublets having doubled, 32% after no double. Doubling loses (27.77-32) * 30/36 = -3.775%.
Doubling gains 1.6% ME so, easy double there.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.