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Rollout Result Posted; Question, Comment and Request for Mr NeilKaz

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 10:06 p.m.

In Response To: Tough and Tricky 41 (Paul Weaver)

Question for Mr. NeilKaz: How much longer are you going to be the all-time ABT point leader?

Comment for Mr. NeilKaz: You may not be the only one to learn something here. As much as I respect the backgammon checker play skills of all bgonline posters and readers, there may be one or two (other than Neil and I) who would have not made the best play over the board. Scroll down below to see how wild it looks after the best play has been made.

Request for Mr. NeilKaz: Please figure this one out and grace us with your analysis and commentary (after you roll it out a few million times 9-ply XG+++++ on your super-duper faster-than-speed-of-light computer). Thanks in advance!





White is Michel1

score: 0
pip: 142
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 156
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=-a--a-E-D--BbBa--bbd--bB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout18/4* 6/5eq: -0.476
Player:
Opponent:		40.24% (G:10.92% B:0.53%)
59.76% (G:23.28% B:1.63%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.483...-0.470) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes
2.Rollout18/4* 4/3eq: -0.492 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		38.79% (G:10.90% B:0.55%)
61.21% (G:20.83% B:1.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.499...-0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout111/7 8/7eq: -0.495 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		37.81% (G:9.02% B:0.37%)
62.19% (G:16.41% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.500...-0.489) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 59 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
White is Michel1

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=aa--AAD-C--BbBa--bbd--bB--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.72% (G:23.11% B:1.58%) 59.72% (G:23.11% B:1.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.28% (G:10.77% B:0.56%) 40.28% (G:10.82% B:0.55%)
Cubeless Equities +0.328 +0.656
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.471±0.019 (+0.452..+0.490)
Double/Take:+0.329 (-0.142)±0.024 (+0.305..+0.353)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.529)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 17.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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