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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 27 December 2006, at 6:11 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sun. Dec. 24th (Stick)

I'll admit that unless this was a major tourney I'd have shoved the checkers around and played 11/5 8/6 too. Even if it was a major I may have made the wrong play! After seeing the rollout and setting it up you see how small rolls, such as 3-2, 4-1, 5-1, etc... play pretty awful with 11/5 8/6 and back to back smalls are even worse. It also leaves immediate bad rolls (6-3) and the more you look at it the more you'll see the other play actually is clearly better because of its distribution.


Match to 25, White leads 7 to 2
136
126
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/11 8/2 0.380
0.1% 5.3% 62.4% 37.6% 3.6% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.440
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.265 ±0.008, - live cube: 0.440 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 76051 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 11/5 8/6 0.363 (-0.017)
0.2% 5.8% 62.0% 38.0% 4.4% 0.1%
Live cube rollout: 0.408
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.254 ±0.009, - live cube: 0.408 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 66643 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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