The first position is just a teaser. It is an obvious double/pass at this score. I had been expecting the cube for some time, but it never arrived! The player on top is on roll in this first diagram.
        
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 87 | | 7 point match | pip: 89
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ACBCBB--------b-bcbbBb-b-:0:0:-1:00:5:5:0:7:10 | | White on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 69.641% (G:2.699% B:0.036%) | 70.273% (G:1.963% B:0.015%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 30.359% (G:1.704% B:0.021%) | 29.727% (G:1.071% B:0.004%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.4109 | +1.1430 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0.8770 (-0.1230) | ±0.0012 (+0.8759..+0.8782) | | Double/Take: | +1.1430 (+0.1430) | ±0.0032 (+1.1399..+1.1462) | | Double/Pass: | +1.0000 | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Pass | | Rollout details | 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43716756
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Duration: 4 minutes 35 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
My opponent must be more comfortable in cash games. The same position is ND for money. In an unlimited/money session, the race is too close to double just yet. Cubless, he is 70% to win right now in a relatively nonvolatile position. If that creeps a bit higher, he will have a more efficient cube later.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 87 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 89
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ACBCBB--------b-bcbbBb-b-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | | White on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 70.081% (G:2.319% B:0.031%) | 70.121% (G:2.284% B:0.029%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 29.919% (G:1.510% B:0.025%) | 29.879% (G:1.501% B:0.025%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.4098 | +0.8206 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0.6935 | ±0.0043 (+0.6892..+0.6978) | | Double/Take: | +0.6378 (-0.0557) | ±0.0046 (+0.6332..+0.6424) | | Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+0.3065) | | | | Best Cube action: No double / Take | | Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3% | | Rollout details | 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13658652
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
The real fun is the second position.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 63 | | 7 point match | pip: 89
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ACBCBB--------b--abbBbbd-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
Over the board, I blew this one. I treated it as though my opponent were a strong player. As several pointed out in this thread, I should not double against a player who is so patently unfamiliar with match cubes. Nevertheless, imagining a strong opponent, I reasoned: - Missing the hit leads to Double/Pass.
- Hit/dance loses my market, giving me a Double/Pass.
- Were my board closed, this would be an easy Double/Take.
- When my opponent enters and hits, the game is far from lost. From the bar, Im 30% to enter on the first try, and afterwards, I should have the advantage in the outfield. Even after entering, my opponent faces the same 30% number I do as he tries to jump my block. As well, he has a few entering numbers that force him to crack.
I did not do any counting or calculating beyond that. It took about 10 seconds for me to nonchalantly offer the cube. The players waiting for our match to finish were kibitzing, and although they tried not their best not to react, I heard a muted gasp arise from them. I took another bite from my apple.
We are all intermediates, who play each other frequently at BGBB, so after the take it was not inappropriate for a kibitzer to ask, You double that? I smiled, gave him a brief, Sure! and then tossed the joker 31 that hit and closed my board. Unfairly cruel for my happless opponent; exhilarating for me!
As it turns out, against a strong opponent, the double is correct by a significant amount.
| | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 63 | | 7 point match | pip: 89
score: 5
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-ACBCBB--------b--abbBbbd-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 41.599% (G:3.533% B:0.052%) | 42.345% (G:2.668% B:0.032%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 58.401% (G:2.847% B:0.042%) | 57.655% (G:2.710% B:0.016%) | | Cubeless Equities | -0.1555 | -0.4316 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | -0.4718 (-0.0402) | ±0.0009 (-0.4727..-0.4709) | | Double/Take: | -0.4316 | ±0.0016 (-0.4332..-0.4300) | | Double/Pass: | +1.0000 (+1.4316) | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Take | | Rollout details | 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22712875
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
| | | | Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | | Duration: 19 minutes 18 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
Mike |