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BGonline.org Forums
Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant *** Rollout ***
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Still not doubling early at DMP! — Variant (Daniel Murphy)
Date: Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 9:13 p.m.
Since nobody was getting the correct answer in my original post, I put this variant out to nudge readers in the right direction. Missing the double here is itself a double of sorts: a double whopper!
White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 637 point match pip: 88
score: 5
Blue is Player 1XGID=-BBBCBB--------b--abbBbbd-:0:0:1:00:5:5:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 46.661% (G:4.308% B:0.039%) 47.915% (G:3.016% B:0.013%) Opponent Winning Chances: 53.339% (G:0.888% B:0.005%) 52.085% (G:0.776% B:0.002%) Cubeless Equities -0.0046 -0.1175 Cubeful Equities No double: -0.3479 (-0.2304) ±0.0010 (-0.3490..-0.3469) Double/Take: -0.1175 ±0.0027 (-0.1202..-0.1148) Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+1.1175) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45141817
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2
Mike
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