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Daily Quiz 2/15: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 18 February 2012, at 4:46 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/15 (Daily Quiz)

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 135 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 149 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ba--BCCB-A--B---abdb-baB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances:	70.93% (G: 26.28% B: 2.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.07% (G: 9.01% B: 0.61%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.419
Double:	+1.228
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.799 (-0.201)
Double/Take:	+1.032 (+0.032)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

Truncated rollout. The main message here seems to be that it's important to save the gammon, but some of the details seem mysterious. For example, why is there such a big difference between 19/14 8/6 and 18/13 8/6?

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 35 11 point match pip: 117 score: 4 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aBBBCBA-------A-AA---eb-:1:1:1:52:4:2:0:11:10
Blue to play 52

1.	Rollout1	16/14 8/3	eq: -0.013
	Player: Opponent: 49.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.81% (G:11.92% B:0.24%) Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.024...-0.002) Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	19/14 8/6	eq: -0.014 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 48.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 51.16% (G:11.32% B:0.23%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.026...-0.002) Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds
3.	Rollout1	19/17 8/3	eq: -0.016 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 48.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 51.08% (G:11.59% B:0.23%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.028...-0.004) Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
4.	Rollout1	18/16 7/2*	eq: -0.030 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 50.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.70% (G:15.23% B:0.79%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.042...-0.018) Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
5.	Rollout1	8/3 6/4	eq: -0.031 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 48.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 51.37% (G:12.38% B:0.29%) Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.042...-0.020) Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds
6.	Rollout1	7/5 7/2*	eq: -0.033 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 49.84% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.16% (G:14.56% B:0.82%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.045...-0.021) Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
7.	Rollout1	7/2* 6/4	eq: -0.035 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 50.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 49.51% (G:15.30% B:1.51%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.048...-0.022) Duration: 1 minute 21 seconds
8.	Rollout1	19/17 7/2*	eq: -0.047 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 49.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.05% (G:15.53% B:1.26%) Conf: ± 0.013 (-0.060...-0.034) Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
9.	Rollout1	19/14 16/14	eq: -0.048 (-0.035)
	Player: Opponent: 49.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.83% (G:14.95% B:0.22%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.058...-0.038) Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds
10.	Rollout1	16/14 7/2*	eq: -0.059 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 49.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.15% (G:15.92% B:1.75%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.071...-0.047) Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds
11.	Rollout1	8/6 7/2*	eq: -0.070 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 49.07% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 50.93% (G:16.31% B:0.81%) Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.081...-0.059) Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds
12.	Rollout1	19/14 6/4	eq: -0.077 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 48.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 51.35% (G:16.02% B:0.65%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.089...-0.065) Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
13.	Rollout1	18/13 16/14	eq: -0.086 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 48.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 51.13% (G:16.67% B:1.15%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.096...-0.076) Duration: 1 minute 32 seconds
14.	Rollout1	18/13 8/6	eq: -0.091 (-0.078)
	Player: Opponent: 46.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 53.42% (G:13.48% B:0.30%) Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.102...-0.080) Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply. 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

Worthy of an Othello quiz.

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 130 11 point match pip: 121 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BA-aCBB----bC-Acc-d-bA---:0:0:1:41:6:2:0:11:10
Blue to play 41

1.	XG Roller+	7/2	eq: -0.372
	Player: Opponent: 41.92% (G:14.34% B:0.28%) 58.08% (G:14.48% B:0.74%)
2.	XG Roller+	22/18 15/14	eq: -0.534 (-0.163)
	Player: Opponent: 39.57% (G:10.09% B:0.23%) 60.43% (G:17.10% B:0.62%)
3.	XG Roller+	15/11 5/4*	eq: -0.556 (-0.184)
	Player: Opponent: 40.78% (G:14.41% B:0.24%) 59.22% (G:20.58% B:1.28%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 121 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BA-aCBB----bC-Acc-d-bA---:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	XG Roller+	7/2	eq: -0.276
	Player: Opponent: 41.52% (G:13.52% B:0.24%) 58.48% (G:13.22% B:0.63%)
2.	XG Roller+	15/11 5/4*	eq: -0.342 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 40.73% (G:14.19% B:0.23%) 59.27% (G:19.86% B:1.24%)
3.	XG Roller+	22/18 15/14	eq: -0.399 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 39.34% (G:10.03% B:0.24%) 60.66% (G:16.72% B:0.62%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 2/15
  Daily Quiz -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 7:32 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 2/15
    Turz -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 11:27 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 2/15
    kruidenbuiltje -- Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 1:17 p.m.
    • Daily Quiz 2/15
      Turz -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 12:43 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 2/15
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 18 February 2012, at 12:33 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 2/15: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 18 February 2012, at 4:46 p.m.
    • Daily Quiz 2/15: XGR+ evals
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 18 February 2012, at 9:14 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 2/15
    RobertFontaine -- Sunday, 19 February 2012, at 1:53 a.m.