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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 4 March 2012, at 4:00 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Action at -4-4, 65 Checker Play (Peever Whopper) (Paul Weaver)

With four checkers back and only a two-point board, I missed the double. With the 65, never crossed my mind that making the 1pt might be best with four back. I made the 18pt, a whopper. To my credit, I considered playing two down, which is a bit better than the 18pt.





White is michel1

score: 1
pip: 170
5 point match
pip: 168
score: 1

Blue is peever
XGID=a--Ba-DAB---fB---b-eA-AAA-:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 59.68% (G:26.56% B:1.56%) 59.75% (G:27.46% B:3.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 40.32% (G:9.54% B:0.80%) 40.25% (G:10.22% B:1.30%)
Cubeless Equities +0.441 +1.259
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.621 (-0.098)±0.019 (+0.601..+0.640)
Double/Take:+0.719±0.037 (+0.682..+0.755)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.281)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is michel1

score: 1
pip: 170
5 point match
pip: 168
score: 1

Blue is peever
XGID=a--Ba-DAB---fB---b-eA-AAA-:0:0:1:65:1:1:0:5:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout17/1 6/1eq: +0.477
Player:
Opponent:		55.80% (G:24.01% B:0.75%)
44.20% (G:10.69% B:0.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.459...+0.495) - [97.5%]
Duration: 9 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 7/2eq: +0.449 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		55.29% (G:23.87% B:1.15%)
44.71% (G:11.20% B:0.86%)		Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.428...+0.470) - [2.5%]
Duration: 9 minutes 32 seconds
3.Rollout113/8 13/7eq: +0.376 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:		55.80% (G:20.38% B:1.02%)
44.20% (G:9.57% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.021 (+0.355...+0.397) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout124/18 23/18eq: +0.366 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:		55.26% (G:19.05% B:1.07%)
44.74% (G:10.47% B:0.71%)		Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.345...+0.386) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 55 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

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