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PR and Winning: Naive Question

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 10 March 2012, at 2:28 a.m.

In Response To: PR and Winning: Naive Question (Steve Mellen)

Yes, and related to avoiding gammon losses, Fogerlund's "Ray's Rule" number 4 is "avoid large swings."

Though I'd say rules of thumb don't apply equally to everyone. Avoid large swings especially if, for example, you have a tendency to make overly big plays. Double more aggressively if you have a tendency to double too late. But not if you're already a cubing maniac. And so on.

So you lose an early gammon sometimes. 9-away 5-away is still (an optimistic still) 27%. Worse than 9-away 8-away's 44%, but 7-away 9-away is 61% (and 7a 3a is still 24%, 7a 6a 44%, and 5a 7a 62%). One of the reasons a take is a take.

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