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Four Reasons 15/11 is Wrong

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 12 March 2012, at 6:43 p.m.

In Response To: My Late Game Blunder With 31 (Paul Weaver)

Four Reasons 15/11 is Worse than 10/6. My mindless play, 15/11, minimizes shots and get closer to home. However, it is dead wrong. There are other things going on in the position than worrying about the number of shots.

1. You lose 4 more pips if you get hit after 15/11.

2. Count White's hit-and-covers after each play. After 15/11 there are 8 (66 22 62 64 65). After 10/6 there are only 6 (32 43 53).

3. As David pointed out, White's midpoint is stripped. Consequently, White has to break her 13pt to hit with a 3. In particular, White leaves lotsa shots and blots after hitting with 21 and 31. An exercise for the reader would be to count the average number of return shots Blue gets after White hits with each of the two plays.

4. After Blue plays 15/11 and White hits, there is a minimal chance that White will experience SGS (Speedy Gonzalez Syndrome). However, after Blue plays 10/6 and White hits, she could find herself experiencing SGS after rolling 55 33 53, etc, especially if she makes the mistake of rolling big odd numbers two or three times in a row. If White hits with 33, she is in immediate danger of SGS.

		White is Kim Kardashian score: 5 pip: 127 9 point match pip: 117 score: 6 Blue is peever
XGID=--B-BcC-B-C-bB-A--ac-c-ab-:0:0:1:31:6:5:0:9:10
Blue to play 31

1.	Rollout1	10/6	eq: +0.343
	Player: Opponent: 60.67% (G:6.45% B:0.47%) 39.33% (G:6.50% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.331...+0.354) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 08 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/2	eq: +0.285 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 59.46% (G:6.22% B:0.28%) 40.54% (G:6.79% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.273...+0.298) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
3.	Rollout1	6/3 4/3	eq: +0.279 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 59.84% (G:8.62% B:0.51%) 40.16% (G:8.48% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.267...+0.290) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 15 seconds
4.	Rollout1	15/11	eq: +0.249 (-0.093)
	Player: Opponent: 59.53% (G:5.78% B:0.28%) 40.47% (G:8.10% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.237...+0.262) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 56 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• My Late Game Blunder With 31
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 2:45 p.m.
  • My Late Game Blunder With 31
    David Rockwell -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 3:02 p.m.
    • My Late Game Blunder With 31
      Stick -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 4:05 p.m.
    • My Late Game Blunder With 31
      christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 5:00 p.m.
  • Four Reasons 15/11 is Wrong
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 6:43 p.m.
    • Four Reasons 15/11 is Wrong
      Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 12 March 2012, at 6:52 p.m.
    • Four Reasons 15/11 is Wrong- variant
      pontiac -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 12:36 a.m.