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3-digits versus 4-digits

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 2:30 a.m.

In Response To: 3-digits versus 4-digits (Taper_Mike)

Nack, if you see this, please comment on your experiences. You are in a position to know whether a fourth digit improves accuracy when rollouts are combined.

I'd guess that composite values would make a difference by .001 for fewer than 10% of the plays. IMO, even if 25% it's not worth sweating.

I think most people prefer to post and view to three decimal places (though I'm always happy to re-post if someone requests four). If you like, you can improve accuracy slightly by comparing the difference in absolute values. For example, in the rollout posted here, the reported margin is .007 but the difference between absolute values is .008. By deduction, you know that the margin cannot be less than .007 and cannot be greater than .0075, so the best estimate of margin is 00725.

When the absolute margin agrees with the relative margin, the exact difference between them is conceivably as great as .0005, but most likely it is significantly smaller -- it is heavily weighted towards .0000 on a bell curve.

Nack

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