BGonline.org Forums

Bearoff Cube Action

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 8:40 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff Cube Action (neilkaz)

AP's rollout will say Blue wins 58.23% "cubeless." How often does Blue actually win? Surprisingly, I think: Holding the cube this turn, Blue wins actually wins about 63% of the time. Having doubled, only about 50.2%.

The position and cube action is similar to another basic reference:

Unlimited match, Blue on roll.

White	4
Blue	8
Position ID: DwAAwAMAAAAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.3004)! [very bad]

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		+0.0442
	0.5221 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.4779 0.0000 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.2602
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.7398
3.	Double, take	-0.0401	-0.3004
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (28.9%)

Above, Blue does actually win 52% if he does not redouble, but only 49% if he does.

Messages In This Thread

• Endgame Cube Action
  AP -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 1:23 p.m.
  • Endgame Cube Action
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 1:54 p.m.
  • Endgame Cube Action
    Michael Nielsen -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 3:28 p.m.
  • Bearoff Cube Action
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 4:07 p.m.
    • Bearoff Cube Action
      Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 13 March 2012, at 8:40 p.m.
  • Endgame Cube Action
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 14 March 2012, at 12:03 a.m.
  • Endgame Cube Action
    AP -- Friday, 16 March 2012, at 1:10 a.m.