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BGonline.org Forums
Cleveland #3
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Cleveland #3 (Jason Lee)
Date: Wednesday, 28 March 2012, at 5:45 p.m.
(No recube vig, thus...) At the matchscore, White risks 15.5% to gain 25% by doubling so window opens at about 38.5%. Blue risks 25% to gain 50% so his takepoint is 33% and thus the doubling window is 38.5% < W < 67%.
Blue loses his market whenever he take 2 off (other than with 2-1 roll) [so every roll containing a six plus every doublet] and opp fails to bear off, or short of that when opp rolls a non-doublet 2. That's:
(16/36)*(32/36) + [1 - 'that']*(10/36) -- where 'that' is the first term
which is close to 0.4 + 0.6*0.3 = 58%.
To get an estimate on White cubeless game winning chances, figure he wins by getting off in 1 roll whenever White doesn't do such (roughly 11%) and by getting off in 2 rolls whenever White doesn't do such: approximately [1 - 'that']*(26/36)*(32/36)*(30/36) -- see compliment of 2nd term above multiplied by chances White doesn't bear off in the first shake and Blue doesn't get doubles on his second shake; this product = 32%.
If I did all this right (note "approximate") then Blue appears to be 57::43 cubeless favorite (but White comfortably in the window, having a Take AtS).
Regarding the $-game, with recube vig White probably has a beaver, but I'm not sure so more 'rithmetic is needed.
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