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Two from Cleveland

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 30 March 2012, at 7:01 p.m.

In Response To: Two from Cleveland (Bill Calton)

Top position I calculate that Brown needs ~27% cubeless GWC to take. Ward+Kleinman (which I think still works this late for smooth positions with equal wastage, but not sure) gives Beige around 0.50 + (6/7.2)*0.267 ~ 72.5% so very close but (apparently) on the TAKE side.

R+T

Second position: Pass for 25% MWC or take for the match. Brown bears off immediately 3/36 times means 33/36 of the time Beige gets a chance to bear off on his first shake. 10/36 do that and (33/36)*(10/36) is a bit more than 9/36 so enough on that scenario alone. Given that Beige might get a second chance, there is some margin on the take. Since Brown's window opens at 30% cGWC the redouble for the match is easy.

R+T

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