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Two from Cleveland

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 31 March 2012, at 2:03 p.m.

In Response To: Two from Cleveland (neilkaz)

How on earth do you calc 27% cubeless to take?

Well, let's try it (virtual) BoE, using old W-H MET (which usually is close but maybe not here -- you and RDR can tell me :).

Current score (drop/taker's PoV): 6-away, 5-away with cube already on 2.

Start by asking "what happens if cube is sent back at 8?" Pass trailing 5a, 2a or take for the match. 5a, 2a is 25%. Now back to the 2 --> 4 takepoint.

Pass -- trail 6a, 3a for 30%.

Take and win -- lead 2-away, 5-away for 75%.

Take and lose -- trail 6a Crawford for 11%.

So the "dead-cube" takepoint is (30-11)/(75-11) = 19/64 MWC. (Anyone who's worked a lot with American measurements should be able to convert this to decimal. :) 20/64 is 5/16 or 31.25% MWC. 1/64 is close to 1.5% so subtract that and get a dead-cube takepoint of about 30%.

Now if the cube return potential is perfectly efficient then (from our first calc above) the cashpoint is 75% of 30% = 22.5%. But the cube is almost never that efficient so it's somewhere between 22.5% and 30% and 2/3 of the way there is 25% which is my final estimate for the takepoint.

Conclusion: I made a mental error in the calc when I came up with 27% takepoint originally. I may have added 1.5% to 31.25% instead of subtracting but I don't remember.

BTW, where do you think the cubeless takepoint lies?

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