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Cubeless Takepoint AtS

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 31 March 2012, at 8:08 p.m.

In Response To: Two from Cleveland - redo MEC w/NK-RDR XG2 MET (Chuck Bower)

Looks like very close to 24.5% cGWC (see two positions below) which means the cube efficiency isn't quite 50% here. (That can happen with large cube values at these kinds of situations where trailer must cube or lose his market and the doubling window is so large. Here volatility of the position for the 4-->8 cube is very high as well.)





White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 25
11 point match
pip: 23
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-ABAA------------abaaa--:1:1:1:00:6:5:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.530% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 75.517% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.470% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 24.483% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5106 +1.1498
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.7704 (-0.2296)±0.0009 (+0.7696..+0.7713)
Redouble/Take:+1.0103 (+0.0103)±0.0012 (+1.0090..+1.0115)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14646548
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25.1 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 5
pip: 29
11 point match
pip: 25
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BAC-------------bbaa---:1:1:1:00:6:5:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.486% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 75.474% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.514% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 24.526% (G:0.000% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5097 +1.1480
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.7757 (-0.2183)±0.0009 (+0.7748..+0.7765)
Redouble/Take:+0.9940±0.0010 (+0.9930..+0.9950)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0060)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 14646548
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 19.5 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

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