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OLM Sa 03/31/12

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 1 April 2012, at 3:21 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 03/31/12 (Jason Lee)

We need to count shots next turn. Any number which contains an ace or a deuce doesn't leave a shot so we eliminate 20/36 rolls off the bat. Any combination of {4,5,6} leaves a direct in either case -- that's 9 and there are 7 left to consider, all which contain a 3: {63,53,43,33}. The first two of these leave direct shots after both plays. Clearing the 5-point leaves a direct after 43 (but not after 33) whereas clearing the 6-point does just the opposite. So clearing the 5-point appears to leave one more shot.

Residuals:

1) clearing the 5-point does get a checker off, saving the G. (The parlay of losing a gammon after clearing the 6-point exists but chances are quite remote.) It also likely bears off more quickly (meaning more G wins) BUT that must we weighed against the gammon wins given up when a blot gets hit.

2) leaving NO gap almost certainly leaves fewer long-term shots.

IMO, fewer shots (near- and longterm) makes clearing the 6-point best.

6/1, 6/5

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