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Daily Quiz 3/26

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 4 April 2012, at 10:05 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/26 (Daily Quiz)

Daily Quiz 26 march 2012

Number 1

Blue has the better position here (5-prime with golden structure), he has a clear threat and a small race advantage. It’s a clear double. The question is: is it a take? Thanks to his good diversification of attackers blue has 22/36 ways to either hit the 15-blot or make the 3-point, almost all other throws (except maybe D4) will surmount in a blitz. Even though white will get a 1-anchor most of the time, I don’t think he will win 9/36 times.

Answer: DP

Number 2

Blue is ahead in the race, but does that mean we should button up with 24/22 6/2, it doesn’t seem right. The 2 loose white back-checkers actually become rather strong. Having decided to attack, we have essentially 3 ways to do it. The heavy 7x3x1 (direct risk = 11/36), staying safe at the back 24/22 7x3 (risk = 17/36), keeping the front structure 13x11/7 (risk = 6/36). The second option should be discarded because of the high risk, with less reward. The problem with the last option is the high chance of white anchoring, which would give him hands free to strengthen his front position. I would go heavy.

Answer: 7x3x1

Number 3

At first sight blue looks better here: he is a favourite to cover the 3-blot, and with a little luck he might even pick up a 4th blot. But this is a deceptive position, blue has a lot to do.

1st goal: Cover the 3 blot before white hits is (chance of succes 30/36)

2nd goal: Throw a 6 within 4 moves to escape the first backchecker (3/4)

3rd goal: Assuming we have thrown a 2 along the way, escape the last checker within 3 moves (2/3)

If blue doesn’t reach all three goals his prime will crunch, the chance of reaching all three goals = 5/12. So blue will crunch most of the time. So it’s no double, or can white crunch as well? The chance of this happening is much lower since white can hit in his board and make blue rehit thus worsening blue’s timing even more. Is it a beaver? It’s close, but the gammons that blue wins because ot the possible 4 man back, make the blue equity a little bit higher, so no.

Answer: No Double

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