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Daily Quiz 3/29
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/29 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Thursday, 5 April 2012, at 10:53 a.m.
Daily Quiz 29 march 2012
Number 1
The blue position seems pretty strong, but there is a problem. Blue is close to crunching, so he has to play his 6’es from the back, and his 1’s as well. That means that blue will only cover or safety the blot on the 3-point with all 2’s, D3, D1,53,43,D6 = 18/36, so white will have about 15% hits.
Blue has 10 to 16 pips to play on front (16, when we presume he will open his 6-point), this gives him 2,25 to 3 moves to escape at the back. So his crunch-chance varies from (16/36)^2,25 to (16/36) ^3 that is 9 to 16%.
So the total winning chance of white is between 24% and 31%, DT.
Answer: DT
Number 2
Blue has the choice between playing safe with 13/6 and bold with 13/9 6x3. Magriel’s criteria: race = equal, board = better, blots = are there, anchor = yes suggest playing bold, so:
Answer: 13/9 6x3
Number 3
Normally I would say that dropping a blot on the 2-point with 6/off 3/2 is wrong, because it doesn’t only create a direct hit but also very probable future hitchances, since the blot is hard to cover. But then there is the 4-prime that white has to jump after hitting. The chance of him crunching over this is about (16/36) ^2 = about 19%. So we can say that hits in this variation are only 81% effective. But on the other hand 6/off 3/2 leaves a nasty stripped position that makes both 65 and 54 horror numbers, after 6/off 6/5 both numbers play a lot better. Without further calculation I have the feeling that 6/off 6/5 is the best.
Answer: 6/off 6/5
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