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BGonline.org Forums
Backgammon vs Poker bankroll calculations
Posted By: Stanley E. Richards In Response To: Finished with Poker (Chuck Bower)
Date: Saturday, 13 October 2007, at 5:08 a.m.
Yeah baby. I have been waiting to talk about this issue since July 2007. That is when my research indicated the great advantages to backgammon gambling. I plan on writing a detail article about backgammon money sites. At that time I was going to tackle this issue. But since Chuck asked, I will gladly talk about the superior economics of backgammon gambling as opposed to Texas Hold ‘em Poker.
First let’s start with well established theory that a certain amount of bankroll is required to avoid disaster. That is to say if you are a winning player in any game, you must have a designated amount of money to continue to play said game. Even if you play well and are a consistent winner, you are going to endure runs of bad luck which will deplete your earnings. You must have an established bankroll to weather these storms.
http://www.bet-the-pot.com/bankroll-standard-deviation-page43.html Bankroll formula
http://pokerworks.com/article-731.html Bankroll requirements
http://pokerworks.com/article-778.html Full vs. no limit variance comparison
Bankroll = - (SD * SD/(2 * Win Rate)) * ln (Risk of Ruin)
The below given data is based on the above internet articles:
Full Limit Standard Deviation over 100 games = 15 BB/100
No Limit Standard Deviation over 100 games = 50 BB/100
Full Limit Typical Win Rate of Successful Player = 1 BB/100
No Limit Typical Win Rate of Successful Player = 5 BB/100
65 hands/hour – Time for 100 hands = 1 ½ hours
Now, let’s take a look at some backgammon data:
REW has reported that his point per game average is .30. He has stated that he considers those who play at a 6 Snowie error rate or more to be fish. Thus, one can imagine that REW is a world class player. I enjoy a .20 ppg advantage playing at a 6.4 to 6.8 Snowie level. The average backgammon game requires 21 moves at 15 seconds per move. Thus, the typical game length is five minutes. The below mentioned internet article estimates backgammon variation as 9 times the number of games. This leads to the below given data:
Typical Win Rate of Successful Player = .2 ppg
Time to play 18 games = 1 ½ hours
Winnings at $5 per point for 18 games = $18 (.2 x 18 x 5)
Variance = 162 (9 x 18)
Standard deviation (sq rt of variance) = 12.7
Standard Deviation (in dollars) = $64
http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+709 Backgammon variation
http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+712 Average Backgammon Game Time
Now if you compare backgammon to poker, the below table can be created.
SORRY TABLE NOT LEGIBLE. Feel free to input the given data in the bankroll formula to confirm the below paragraph.
Backgammon is a far superior gambling vehicle based on the above table. An approximate $500 bankroll can produce an hourly win rate of $12 per hour versus 67 cents per hour with limit poker. A $1,000 bankroll can produce $24 per hour with backgammon vs. $3.33 per hour with no limit poker. This all stems from the huge standard deviations which occur with poker. The deviations are ten to fifteen times greater than the win rate. Backgammon’s standard deviation is only 3.5 times the win rate. The huge variances with poker lead to long periods of losing for good poker players. Backgammon’s variances are much smaller. Hence, the losing periods are not as frequent or as long.
Both backgammon and poker are games of skill and luck. However, the luck portion of poker is greater than the luck portion of backgammon. This is evident by the high poker variances. Poker players should not be insulted by this statement. The skill required to be a fine poker player is still demanding. I am not trying to imply that poker is easier than backgammon. It may depend on individual skills. I am not good at reading people or adjusting to various poker table styles. But, I can read patterns which are not human influenced and can make accurate, quick math estimates. Thus, my abilities are more suited to backgammon. Nevertheless, variance statistics do lead me to the following conclusion. The skilled poker player has an advantage over the non-skilled poker player. However, the skilled backgammon player has a much greater advantage over the non-skilled backgammon player.
Overall, online poker is much better for earning money than online backgammon. This is simply due to an abundance of action at any level. There is no waiting. You can find low stakes, medium stakes, and high stakes game at many different sites. Backgammon may produce a greater win rate per bankroll. But, there is not that much action. The waiting periods for skilled backgammon players are killing the opportunity for backgammon to ever compete with poker. Thus, if you are willing to invest towards a sizeable poker bankroll and your personality can tolerate the wild variation swings of poker, then that is the place to earn. I won’t invest the money, nor do I wish to endure the variations of poker. Thus, I’m finished with poker.
Stanley
P. S. I have checked my math and methods many times. Yet, it is possible that I have made some error. Please feel free to point out any mistakes so that they may be corrected.
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