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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/3
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/3 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Wednesday, 11 April 2012, at 5:29 p.m.
Daily Quiz 3 april 2012
Number 1
If I use the PRAT-rule to decide: blue has the better position and a huge threat, and white has a huge race-advantage. White also (still) has a better board. Blue has 24/36 pointing hits, but a fourth of those are returned because of the stripped blue points. Blitzing is risky for blue in view of the better white board. On top of that there will not be too many gammons here. I think blue is a favourite of about 65%, not enough to double.
Answer: nD
Number 2
A lot of blue moves create initial shots (generating about 16% hits), the clearing of the 8-point will give even more shots, (double direct ones) about 40% hits. Of course the hits aren’t wins (the open 4- and 5-point from white are awkward), but they will make white a favourite. I guess that the doubling window opens after blue moves and white doesn’t hit.
Answer: No Double
Number 3
The chance of a gammon is very small, and with the cube on 8 a gammon gives not so much extra equity as usual. So safety is top-priority. Of the 4 options I see: 6x3/2 … 6/5 1off(3)…6/4 5/4…6/4 5/4(2). Only the first give a shot risk on the next move, because of the 5-stack on the 5-point. The safety difference between the other 3 options seems small since all numbers seem to play rather good for several moves. So between the 3 leftover options I would choose the one that takes 3 off.
Answer: 6/5 1off(3)
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