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3 ROLLOUTs 4 Positions

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Thursday, 26 April 2012, at 9:25 a.m.

In Response To: Cube Action? (Mr Majestyk)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 99
5 point match
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBCCBC-----a---abbcbbA-A-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.39% (G:17.05% B:0.81%) 73.51% (G:16.61% B:1.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.61% (G:8.67% B:1.32%) 26.49% (G:9.61% B:2.69%)
Cubeless Equities +0.552 +1.161
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.867 (-0.133)±0.004 (+0.862..+0.871)
Redouble/Take:+1.069 (+0.069)±0.006 (+1.063..+1.076)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7294422
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

If nothing else, this will force me to be more alert in future. I took like a good donkey should.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 101
5 point match
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBCCBC-----a---abbcbb--B-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.82% (G:18.69% B:0.80%) 78.19% (G:19.16% B:0.90%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.18% (G:6.01% B:0.35%) 21.81% (G:6.15% B:0.37%)
Cubeless Equities +0.727 +1.441
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.976 (-0.024)
Redouble/Take:+1.347 (+0.347)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Things are becoming a lot clearer!





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 98
5 point match
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBCCBC-----a---abbcbbAA--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.40% (G:16.79% B:0.79%) 72.61% (G:16.30% B:0.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.60% (G:8.85% B:1.36%) 27.39% (G:9.24% B:2.50%)
Cubeless Equities +0.526 +1.120
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.865 (-0.135)±0.009 (+0.856..+0.874)
Redouble/Take:+1.019 (+0.019)±0.013 (+1.006..+1.032)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7294422
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.7%
Duration: 6 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

This looks close but look, it is still short of the magic 30%.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 97
5 point match
pip: 136
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-bBCCBC-----a---abbcbbB---:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.88% (G:12.07% B:0.49%) 61.97% (G:11.46% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.12% (G:11.36% B:1.03%) 38.03% (G:12.91% B:2.24%)
Cubeless Equities +0.221 +0.538
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.500±0.009 (+0.491..+0.509)
Redouble/Take:+0.395 (-0.105)±0.012 (+0.383..+0.407)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.500)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7294422
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 11 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

The power of being at the edge WITH BOTH CHECKERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NBM

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