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Why is making the 5 point such a bad play?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 4 May 2012, at 2:32 a.m.

In Response To: Why is making the 5 point such a bad play? (Dmitriy Obukhov)

I kept moving blue checkers until I found one where 24/20 was analyzed as best in a money game. I had to move a lot of checkers ...

Money game. Blue to play 34

White138

1O ' ' '1O6X '3X ' ' ' '

1O '2O3O2O3O ' ' '1O1O6X
Blue112
Position ID: 4OfgBwDZ7VAAIQ Match ID: cIkRAAAAAAAE

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 24/20 4/1 +0.9085
0.7504 0.1028 0.0002 - 0.2496 0.0149 0.0002
2 2 24/20 10/7 +0.9029 ( -0.0057)
0.7437 0.1003 0.0003 - 0.2563 0.0153 0.0002
3 2 24/20 11/8 +0.9014 ( -0.0071)
0.7419 0.1029 0.0003 - 0.2581 0.0149 0.0002
4 2 20/16 4/1 +0.8444 ( -0.0642)
0.7193 0.2024 0.0011 - 0.2807 0.0222 0.0004
5 2 11/7 4/1 +0.8128 ( -0.0957)
0.7117 0.2132 0.0011 - 0.2883 0.0261 0.0005
6 2 10/6 4/1 +0.8046 ( -0.1039)
0.7087 0.2141 0.0011 - 0.2913 0.0276 0.0005

... and the position is unlikely. Similarly, but still having the midpoint:

Money game. Blue to play 34

White138

1O ' ' '1O6X '3X ' ' '2O

1O '2O3O2O3O ' ' ' ' '6X
Blue117
Position ID: 4OfgBwDZ7YABIQ Match ID: cIkRAAAAAAAE

• Blue moves 20/13

# Ply Move Equity
1 2 20/13 +0.8928
0.7323 0.1729 0.0015 - 0.2677 0.0209 0.0004
2 2 24/20 4/1 +0.8516 ( -0.0412)
0.7299 0.0919 0.0002 - 0.2701 0.0155 0.0003
3 2 24/20 6/3 +0.8435 ( -0.0493)
0.7243 0.1009 0.0003 - 0.2757 0.0188 0.0004
4 2 24/20 5/2 +0.8048 ( -0.0880)
0.7094 0.1047 0.0006 - 0.2906 0.0226 0.0005
5 2 20/16 4/1 +0.7964 ( -0.0964)
0.7038 0.2054 0.0013 - 0.2962 0.0254 0.0005
6 2 6/2 4/1 +0.7680 ( -0.1248)
0.6864 0.2198 0.0022 - 0.3136 0.0357 0.0011

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