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CRB backgame series #12 -- Rollout

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 9 May 2012, at 1:51 p.m.

In Response To: CRB backgame series #12 (Chuck Bower)

Didn't want anyone to make the mistake of thinking my opp quadruple-whoppered this. Score not conducive to such optimism. (See attached $-game RO.)





White is CRay

score: 3
pip: 178
7 point match
pip: 163
score: 3

Blue is superdavek
XGID=-bBABaB-A---cA---c-bdCBA--:0:0:-1:00:3:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.643% (G:33.084% B:2.131%) 67.198% (G:33.513% B:7.646%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.357% (G:6.762% B:0.610%) 32.802% (G:7.200% B:0.721%)
Cubeless Equities +0.7417 +2.0308
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.0102±0.0212 (+0.9890..+1.0314)
Double/Take:+1.4929 (+0.4827)±0.0474 (+1.4455..+1.5403)
xg Double/Pass:+1.0000 (-0.0102)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.1%
Rollout details
695 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 22518720
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:82.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 25 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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