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Daily Quiz 4/24

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 17 May 2012, at 11:48 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/24 (Daily Quiz)

1. This looks like a clear take. Blue does have an advantage because he might bottle up White's back three checkers. Should be a double, though, because even if Blue fails to clean up his blot and gets hit, the game is still pretty even, and if Blue rolls well, I think he loses his market. D/T.

2. Normally hitting would be clear. But this is gammon save. If Blue plays 18/11*, White hits back with 62 61 42 41 22 21 11, or 12 rolls, after which Blue gets gammoned a lot. Even if Blue isn't hit back immediately, he still can lose a gammon because he might not clean everything up. I'd guess that Blue loses 25% to 30% gammons after 18/11*, and wins 60%. If Blue plays safe with 8/2 3/2, then I think his winning percentage drops by less than 10 percentage points but his gammon losses drop by more than 10 percentage points. 8/2 3/2.

3. Blue is forced to leave a direct shot only with 61. With two blots in her home board, White will probably won't hit an indirect shot even if the dice permit it. White is crunching and doesn't have much time to wait for a shot. Her chances lie mostly in her racing vig. However, because of Blue's outfield control and strong board, if White runs a back checker then she's in danger of getting attacked and gammoned. I double here and am not sure about the take. White's bad board and two dead checkers make a significant difference here. Could be a take but I would pass. D/P.

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