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OLM Mo 05/21/12 - Cube RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 11:38 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mo 05/21/12 (Jason Lee)

XG's 5-1 was not enough pips in response to our 5-5 to take our double. Gnubg even-ply would have taken. A 5-3 would have made for a marginal take/drop decision, according to the second rollout below:

The score is: White 1, Blue 0 (match to 15 points). Blue on roll

White	97
Blue	80
Position ID: bdshAANrs80AAA Match ID: cAngARAAAAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5577	(Money: +0.5574)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0563	+0.0563
3.	No double	+0.9227	-0.0773
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7767 0.0098 0.0001 - 0.2233 0.0058 0.0000 +0.5577 +0.9227 Standard error 0.0016 0.0006 0.0000 - 0.0016 0.0006 0.0001 0.0033 0.0066 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7875 0.0095 0.0001 - 0.2125 0.0047 0.0000 +1.1661 +1.0563 Standard error 0.0014 0.0009 0.0000 - 0.0014 0.0006 0.0000 0.0060 0.0071
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 915489171 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5455 (Money: +0.5455)
0.7701 0.0117 0.0001 - 0.2299 0.0064 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9452
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0548)
3. No double +0.8607 ( -0.0845)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Cube analysis
3-ply cubeless equity +0.5720 (Money: +0.5720)
0.7833 0.0104 0.0000 - 0.2167 0.0051 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.0000
2. Double, take +1.0072 ( +0.0072)
3. No double +0.8975 ( -0.1025)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.5607 (Money: +0.5608)
0.7780 0.0125 0.0002 - 0.2220 0.0079 0.0000
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9888
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0112)
3. No double +0.8856 ( -0.1032)
Proper cube action: Double, take

The score (after 0 games) is: White 1, Blue 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 4: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	95
Blue	80
Position ID: bbsRAANrs80AAA Match ID: cAngARAAAAAE

• Blue doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.5422	(Money: +0.5419)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.0010	+0.0010
3.	No double	+0.8977	-0.1023
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.7691 0.0104 0.0001 - 0.2309 0.0067 0.0001 +0.5422 +0.8977 Standard error 0.0005 0.0002 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0003 0.0000 0.0011 0.0025 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7766 0.0096 0.0001 - 0.2234 0.0056 0.0001 +1.1199 +1.0010 Standard error 0.0005 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0003 0.0000 0.0021 0.0027
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2337 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 915489171 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.5269 (Money: +0.5269)
0.7606 0.0123 0.0001 - 0.2394 0.0067 0.0001
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.9014
2. Double, pass +1.0000 ( +0.0986)
3. No double +0.8372 ( -0.0642)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Mo 05/21/12
  Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 2:00 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 05/21/12
    David Rennie -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 2:25 a.m.
    • OLM Mo 05/21/12
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 4:29 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 05/21/12
    Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 4:56 a.m.
  • OLM Mo 05/21/12
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 12:16 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 05/21/12
    Havard Raddum -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 8:32 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 05/21/12
    Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 8:42 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 05/21/12 - Cube RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 22 May 2012, at 11:38 p.m.
  • OLM Mo 05/21/12 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 1:14 a.m.