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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 4/30
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/30 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Thursday, 24 May 2012, at 5:09 p.m.
I guess everyone else replied to this when it was originally presented. :) Or is Stick conducting some kind of experiment, prompted by Timothy's recent post about lack of intereset in the DQ?
Problem 1. OtB I'm sure I would hem and haw and then pass. Takepoint (with 'automatic' recube) is 25% GWC. Garden variety 24-point games don't have nearly this much equity. Of course Stick wouldn't have posted this if it weren't at least close so apparently this doesn't qualify as 'garden variety'. White's wins are a combination of a few flyshot chances followed by hitting blot(s) once the bearoff has started. Blue is unlikely to close his 4-point so that obviously makes it harder to bear off safely than if he held 2-6 points. Historical (conventional?) wisdom says that if a player can keep the 24-point to the end of the game he will get > 90% chance to shoot at a direct shot, so > ~30% chance to hit a direct shot. Of course he still must win after hitting. Here White isn't guaranteed to be able to keep both his strong homeboard and the 24-point, though. With some knowledge (as in Ref. Pos.) of 24-point GWC with gapped board and a estimate of the flyshot chances one should be able to do a decent back-of-brain calculation here. Unfortunately my memory is empty for hte former. D+P
Problem 2. Hit+fan sequences look like significant sized market losers. Those happen about 1/3 of the time. Other than those White isn't too concerned. (Blue's lack of a scary homeboard means gammons aren't too much of a danger.) This feels like a big take to me. OTOH, with the volatility through the roof (note above mentioned ML's) it also feels like a double. D+T
Problem 3. Lets look at some candidates:
8/2(2) Pure. White may have trouble escaping both back checkers but note that Blue's timing is bad, too.
12/6(2) Takes most of the pressure off White. Doesn't fit the situation.
4/1*(2), 12/9(2) Safe but only moderate pressure on White's 18-point checker.
4/1*(2), 12/6 4/36 return shots but better distribution, including better pressure on White's 18-point checker.
Timing looks too questionable not to pounce. Between the two PoH plays, I'll go with the more diverse one (and take the chance with 11% return hits). At least we're playing Jacoby. 4/1*(2), 12/6
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